Business Overview

HAV Group ASA (ticker: HAV.OL, listed on Euronext Growth Oslo) is an international provider of technology and services for the maritime industries. Incorporated in 2021 and headquartered in Fosnavåg, Møre og Romsdal, Norway, the group operates through four subsidiaries that together target the low- and zero-emission shipping transition: HAV Design (ship design), Norwegian Electric Systems (energy, propulsion, and smart control), HAV Hydrogen (hydrogen energy systems), and Norwegian Greentech (water treatment). As of FY2024 the company employed 167 people, and the group is led by Chief Executive Officer Gunnar Larsen and Chief Financial Officer Pål Aurvåg. The breadth of the subsidiary portfolio reflects a deliberate strategy to offer shipowners an integrated suite of green-technology solutions spanning hull conception, onboard power management, alternative-fuel propulsion, and environmental compliance systems.

At the group level, revenues have expanded from NOK 617.1 million in FY2023 to NOK 756,817 thousand in FY2024 and further to NOK 801,811 thousand in FY2025, demonstrating a multi-year upward revenue trend. The dominant revenue contributor in FY2025 is the Energy Smart Control segment (Norwegian Electric Systems), which generated NOK 592.2 million in revenue and NOK 69.4 million in EBITDA — a dramatic operational recovery from FY2024, when the same segment produced NOK 358.3 million in revenue but posted a negative EBITDA of NOK -13.2 million. Ship Design (HAV Design) contributed NOK 122.6 million in FY2025 revenue, a contraction from NOK 334.9 million in FY2024, and swung to an EBITDA of NOK -21.1 million from a positive NOK 7.9 million the prior year, reflecting the project-lumpy nature of vessel design contracts. Water Treatment (Norwegian Greentech) delivered NOK 102.7 million in FY2025 revenue versus NOK 97.7 million in FY2024, while EBITDA moved from a slim NOK 0.3 million positive in FY2024 to NOK -3.4 million in FY2025. The Hydrogen segment (HAV Hydrogen) remained pre-revenue in FY2025, recording NOK 0.0 million in revenue with its ZEPOD prototype on hold, and absorbed an EBITDA loss of NOK -7.1 million — an improvement from the NOK -10.1 million EBITDA loss recorded in FY2024 when the segment had token revenues of NOK 0.9 million. On a quarterly basis, Q4 FY2025 revenue was NOK 268,638 thousand, compared with NOK 303,334 thousand in Q4 FY2024, indicating some seasonal or project-timing softness at year-end relative to the prior comparable period.

• Is · revenue NOK 801,811 thousand
• Is · revenue NOK 756,817 thousand
• Is · revenue NOK 268,638 thousand
• Is · revenue NOK 303,334 thousand
• Is · revenue NOK 617.1 million (FY2023 comparative)
• Ship design · revenue NOK 122.6 million
• Ship design · ebitda NOK -21.1 million
• Energy smart control · revenue NOK 592.2 million
• Energy smart control · ebitda NOK 69.4 million
• Water treatment · revenue NOK 102.7 million
• Water treatment · ebitda NOK -3.4 million
• Hydrogen · revenue NOK 0.0 million (pre-revenue; ZEPOD prototype on hold)
• Hydrogen · ebitda NOK -7.1 million
• Ship design · revenue NOK 334.9 million
• Ship design · ebitda NOK 7.9 million
• Energy smart control · revenue NOK 358.3 million
• Energy smart control · ebitda NOK -13.2 million
• Water treatment · revenue NOK 97.7 million
• Water treatment · ebitda NOK 0.3 million
• Hydrogen · revenue NOK 0.9 million
• Hydrogen · ebitda NOK -10.1 million
• Company · founded 2021
• Company · headquarters Fosnavåg, Møre og Romsdal, Norway
• Company · employees 167 employees (2024)
• Company · primary listing Euronext Growth Oslo (ticker HAV.OL), NOK-denominated
• Company · business description International provider of technology and services for the maritime industries; four subsidiaries (HAV Design — ship design; Norwegian Electric Systems — energy/propulsion & smart control; HAV Hydrogen — hydrogen energy systems; Norwegian Greentech — water treatment) targeting low/zero-emission shipping.
• Governance · ceo Gunnar Larsen (Chief Executive Officer)
• Governance · cfo Pål Aurvåg (Chief Financial Officer)

Product Breakdown

HAV.OL operates across four distinct business segments — Ship Design, Energy Smart Control, Water Treatment, and Hydrogen — each at a different stage of commercial maturity and profitability. The FY2025 results reveal a marked bifurcation in performance: Energy Smart Control emerged as the dominant revenue engine and reached operational profitability, while Ship Design experienced a sharp contraction in both revenue and margin. The provided facts do not include figures for revenue_by_platform.data_center or segments.compute_networking.revenue; accordingly, no numeric claims are made for those dimensions in this analysis.

The Energy Smart Control segment delivered the most consequential improvement in the portfolio during FY2025. Revenue grew from NOK 358.3 million in FY2024 to NOK 592.2 million in FY2025, representing a substantial year-on-year uplift that elevated it to the largest segment by revenue. Equally significant is the EBITDA reversal: the segment moved from a loss of NOK -13.2 million in FY2024 to a profit of NOK 69.4 million in FY2025, crossing an operational inflection point and becoming the primary contributor to consolidated cash generation. This combination of accelerating top-line growth and a decisive swing into profitability signals that Energy Smart Control has scaled beyond its earlier investment phase and is now translating volume into margin, making it the strategic centrepiece of HAV.OL's near-term financial narrative.

In sharp contrast, the Ship Design segment contracted significantly across both revenue and profitability. Revenue fell from NOK 334.9 million in FY2024 to NOK 122.6 million in FY2025, and EBITDA deteriorated from a positive NOK 7.9 million in FY2024 to a loss of NOK -21.1 million in FY2025. The segment has shifted from a modest profit contributor to a material drag on consolidated results, suggesting that project completions were not replaced by new orders at sufficient volume, or that pricing and execution pressures compressed margins. The scale of the decline underscores the project-based, lumpy nature of ship design revenues and raises questions about order backlog replenishment heading into FY2026.

The Water Treatment segment demonstrated moderate top-line resilience, advancing from NOK 97.7 million in FY2024 to NOK 102.7 million in FY2025. However, EBITDA deteriorated from a slim positive of NOK 0.3 million in FY2024 to a loss of NOK -3.4 million in FY2025, pointing to cost pressures or contract mix headwinds that more than offset the modest revenue gain. The Hydrogen segment remains pre-commercial: it recorded NOK 0.0 million in revenue for FY2025, down from NOK 0.9 million in FY2024, as the ZEPOD prototype is on hold. EBITDA losses in Hydrogen narrowed from NOK -10.1 million in FY2024 to NOK -7.1 million in FY2025, indicating some reduction in spending, though the segment continues to absorb development expenditure with no corresponding revenue offset. Until the ZEPOD programme is reactivated, Hydrogen remains a cost centre with an uncertain commercialisation timeline.

• Ship design · revenue NOK 122.6 million
• Ship design · ebitda NOK -21.1 million
• Energy smart control · revenue NOK 592.2 million
• Energy smart control · ebitda NOK 69.4 million
• Water treatment · revenue NOK 102.7 million
• Water treatment · ebitda NOK -3.4 million
• Hydrogen · revenue NOK 0.0 million (pre-revenue; ZEPOD prototype on hold)
• Hydrogen · ebitda NOK -7.1 million
• Ship design · revenue NOK 334.9 million
• Ship design · ebitda NOK 7.9 million
• Energy smart control · revenue NOK 358.3 million
• Energy smart control · ebitda NOK -13.2 million
• Water treatment · revenue NOK 97.7 million
• Water treatment · ebitda NOK 0.3 million
• Hydrogen · revenue NOK 0.9 million
• Hydrogen · ebitda NOK -10.1 million

Competitive Position

HAV Group's competitive position rests on a layered moat built from Norwegian maritime heritage, specialist engineering competence, and an uncompromising focus on quality and low/zero-emission solutions across the seafood, energy and transport sectors. This heritage differentiates HAV from volume-oriented rivals and underpins a premium-value proposition that commodity producers cannot readily replicate. HAV Design reinforces this position through a track record of more than 100 ship designs, with simulation-based design enabling real-life performance documentation before a vessel is constructed—materially reducing technology risk for customers and creating a defensible barrier to entry. Norwegian Electric Systems deepens the moat as a leading supplier of advanced diesel-electric, hybrid-electric and fully electric propulsion systems for the global marine market, giving the group proven technology assets with broad cross-segment applicability.

The four-subsidiary structure—spanning ship design, propulsion and energy, hydrogen systems, and water treatment—positions HAV as one of the very few groups capable of addressing vessel decarbonisation end-to-end rather than offering fragmented point solutions, with synergies extractable across the whole group. HAV Hydrogen adds a further layer of strategic optionality as one of the global frontrunners in hydrogen-based energy systems for ships, including liquid-hydrogen and Zero Emission Pod architectures, representing meaningful option value on maritime hydrogen adoption. Critically, HAV positions itself as well placed to capitalise on EU emissions regulation and the electrification trend, competing not primarily on price but on vessel performance, safety, environmental footprint and total lifetime value. This competitive philosophy is a direct response to the structural forces reshaping the industry: the green transition, stricter regulatory regimes, and intensifying rivalry from established and emerging players alike.

The competitive landscape is growing more complex along two additional dimensions the group must navigate. First, regarding competitors and AI-assisted engineering compute: larger rivals are investing in advanced simulation, AI-driven design tools and digital-twin capabilities to raise design throughput and compress costs; HAV's own simulation-based design methodology—which documents real-life performance before any vessel is built—constitutes a native rather than a bolt-on capability, keeping the group at parity or better on technical sophistication without sacrificing the specialist quality focus that defines its positioning. Second, regarding the China foreclosure dynamic: Chinese-backed shipbuilders present a structural challenge through scale, state-supported financing and aggressive pricing in standard vessel segments; HAV's deliberate concentration on specialist, technology-intensive and zero-emission vessel types—where Norwegian competence, regulatory proximity and environmental credentials carry outsized weight—constitutes a strategic withdrawal from the most commoditised terrain and a foreclosure of the segments where cost-leadership advantages are most decisive. The global shipbuilding market is predicted to remain at a stable level in the coming years while electrification demand is expected to grow significantly across vessel segments, a divergence that creates a runway for technology-led specialists to capture share disproportionate to headline market growth and validates HAV's long-term positioning ahead of the electrification wave.

• Moat · norwegian maritime heritage Differentiation rests on Norwegian maritime heritage, specialist competence, quality focus and innovative low/zero-emission solutions across the seafood, energy and transport sectors.
• Moat · ship design track record HAV Design has a track record of more than 100 ship designs, with simulation-based design enabling real-life performance documentation before a vessel is built.
• Moat · nes propulsion leadership Norwegian Electric Systems is a leading supplier of advanced diesel-electric, hybrid-electric and 100% electric propulsion systems for the global marine market.
• Moat · hydrogen frontrunner HAV Hydrogen is one of the global frontrunners in offering approved hydrogen-based (incl. liquid-hydrogen and Zero Emission Pod) energy systems for ships — an option value on maritime hydrogen adoption.
• Moat · integrated decarbonisation platform Four complementary subsidiaries (design, energy/propulsion, hydrogen, water treatment) let HAV address vessel decarbonisation end-to-end and extract synergies across the group.
• Competitive · factors Competition is shaped by the green transition, stricter regulation and increasing rivalry; HAV competes on vessel performance, safety, environmental footprint and lifetime value rather than price.
• Competitive · market backdrop The global shipbuilding market is predicted to remain at a stable level in the coming years; electrification demand is expected to grow significantly across vessel segments.
• Competitive · positioning HAV positions itself as well placed to capitalise on EU emissions regulation and the electrification trend with technologies that enhance vessel operations, profitability and environmental performance.

Moat Analysis

HAV Group's competitive moat is rooted in a combination of specialised domain knowledge, integrated platform breadth, and a technology-led positioning that collectively generate meaningful switching costs and replication barriers. The foundation is Norwegian maritime heritage — a tradition of specialist competence, quality focus, and commitment to innovative low- and zero-emission solutions spanning the seafood, energy, and transport sectors. This heritage is not merely reputational; it translates into concrete engineering capability that competitors would need decades to replicate organically. HAV Design's portfolio of more than 100 ship designs, combined with a simulation-based methodology that produces real-life performance documentation before a vessel is built, means that customers are effectively accessing an accumulated body of design intelligence that cannot be easily substituted mid-project. The depth of that track record functions as a continuous reinforcing signal in competitive tenders, where proven reference designs carry disproportionate weight against unproven alternatives.

At the systems level, Norwegian Electric Systems occupies a leadership position as a supplier of advanced diesel-electric, hybrid-electric, and fully electric propulsion systems for the global marine market. Propulsion systems are structurally embedded in vessel architecture; once a ship is commissioned with a given propulsion platform, the cost of switching mid-lifecycle — spanning recertification, integration risk, and crew retraining — is prohibitively high. This dynamic creates durable, multi-year revenue relationships with existing customers and makes the installed base a recurring anchor rather than a one-off transaction. HAV Hydrogen extends this logic into the frontier of energy transition: by positioning itself as one of the global frontrunners in approved hydrogen-based energy systems — including liquid-hydrogen and Zero Emission Pod configurations — the group is accumulating type approvals and reference installations that later entrants will find expensive and slow to replicate. Early positioning in an emerging technology regime, where regulatory approval histories and operational track records carry outsized customer-decision weight, functions as a structural entry barrier that compounds over time as the installed base grows.

The deepest source of HAV's moat is the deliberate construction of an integrated decarbonisation platform. The four subsidiaries — covering ship design, energy and propulsion, hydrogen energy systems, and water treatment — are architected to address vessel decarbonisation end-to-end, enabling cross-subsidiary synergies unavailable to point-solution competitors. When a shipowner navigates the green transition, engaging a single integrated counterparty that can design the vessel, specify and install the propulsion system, supply hydrogen energy solutions, and manage water treatment creates coordination economies and concentrated accountability that a fragmented supplier base cannot match without its own costly consolidation. Competitive dynamics in this space are further shaped by stricter regulation and green-transition tailwinds: HAV explicitly competes on vessel performance, safety, environmental footprint, and lifetime value rather than price, a positioning that rewards technical depth over commoditised supply. Electrification across vessel segments is expected to grow significantly, creating substantial market opportunities; as this structural demand expands, HAV's integrated platform is positioned to capture a disproportionate share relative to single-domain vendors who lack the end-to-end scope to address the full decarbonisation stack.

• Company · business description International provider of technology and services for the maritime industries; four subsidiaries (HAV Design — ship design; Norwegian Electric Systems — energy/propulsion & smart control; HAV Hydrogen — hydrogen energy systems; Norwegian Greentech — water treatment) targeting low/zero-emission shipping.
• Catalysts · electrification trend Electrification is a key driver for making vessels more energy efficient and reducing emissions while the industry awaits large-scale alternative fuels; expected to grow significantly across vessel segments, creating substantial market opportunities for HAV Group.
• Moat · norwegian maritime heritage Differentiation rests on Norwegian maritime heritage, specialist competence, quality focus and innovative low/zero-emission solutions across the seafood, energy and transport sectors.
• Moat · ship design track record HAV Design has a track record of more than 100 ship designs, with simulation-based design enabling real-life performance documentation before a vessel is built.
• Moat · nes propulsion leadership Norwegian Electric Systems is a leading supplier of advanced diesel-electric, hybrid-electric and 100% electric propulsion systems for the global marine market.
• Moat · hydrogen frontrunner HAV Hydrogen is one of the global frontrunners in offering approved hydrogen-based (incl. liquid-hydrogen and Zero Emission Pod) energy systems for ships — an option value on maritime hydrogen adoption.
• Moat · integrated decarbonisation platform Four complementary subsidiaries (design, energy/propulsion, hydrogen, water treatment) let HAV address vessel decarbonisation end-to-end and extract synergies across the group.
• Competitive · factors Competition is shaped by the green transition, stricter regulation and increasing rivalry; HAV competes on vessel performance, safety, environmental footprint and lifetime value rather than price.

Market Position

HAV operates across four business segments in FY2025: Energy & Smart Control, Ship Design, Water Treatment, and Hydrogen. The Energy & Smart Control segment is the clear revenue anchor, generating NOK 592.2 million in FY2025 and turning strongly profitable at NOK 69.4 million EBITDA — a dramatic improvement from NOK 358.3 million revenue and a loss of NOK -13.2 million EBITDA in FY2024. This segment's revenue growth and swing to profitability signals a maturing commercial position in energy management and automation markets, where embedded software and control systems appear to be gaining meaningful operating leverage. The order backlog of NOK 1.143 billion at end of Q4 2025 reinforces the view that forward demand across the group remains substantive, lending credibility to the Energy & Smart Control trajectory.

Ship Design occupies the second revenue position at NOK 122.6 million in FY2025, though this represents a steep decline from NOK 334.9 million in FY2024, with EBITDA deteriorating from NOK 7.9 million to NOK -21.1 million over the same period. The contraction likely reflects a cyclical trough or project-timing dynamic in the marine vessel market rather than a structural loss of competitive position. Water Treatment, the smallest active segment, held relatively steady at NOK 102.7 million in FY2025 versus NOK 97.7 million in FY2024, though margins slipped into slight negative EBITDA territory at NOK -3.4 million from a near-breakeven NOK 0.3 million the prior year, suggesting pricing or cost pressure that has not yet been fully absorbed.

The geographic revenue split — specifically the contributions from the United States (geography.united_states.revenue) and China (geography.china.revenue) — is not broken down in the provided fact set, nor is a separate compute/networking segment (segments.compute_networking.revenue) disclosed. Consequently, it is not possible from these facts alone to assess HAV's exposure to North American procurement cycles or to Chinese infrastructure spending. The Hydrogen segment remains pre-revenue in FY2025 (NOK 0.0 million, with the ZEPOD prototype on hold), narrowing its losses to NOK -7.1 million EBITDA from NOK -10.1 million on NOK 0.9 million revenue in FY2024. The central strategic question for HAV's market position is whether Energy & Smart Control's profitability inflection and the NOK 1.143 billion backlog can together offset the ongoing drag from Ship Design's cyclical reset and the open-ended development spend in Hydrogen.

• Ship design · revenue NOK 122.6 million
• Ship design · ebitda NOK -21.1 million
• Energy smart control · revenue NOK 592.2 million
• Energy smart control · ebitda NOK 69.4 million
• Water treatment · revenue NOK 102.7 million
• Water treatment · ebitda NOK -3.4 million
• Hydrogen · revenue NOK 0.0 million (pre-revenue; ZEPOD prototype on hold)
• Hydrogen · ebitda NOK -7.1 million
• Ship design · revenue NOK 334.9 million
• Ship design · ebitda NOK 7.9 million
• Energy smart control · revenue NOK 358.3 million
• Energy smart control · ebitda NOK -13.2 million
• Water treatment · revenue NOK 97.7 million
• Water treatment · ebitda NOK 0.3 million
• Hydrogen · revenue NOK 0.9 million
• Hydrogen · ebitda NOK -10.1 million
• Catalysts · order backlog NOK 1.143 billion external order backlog at end of Q4 2025

Customer Base

HAV.OL's customer relationships are most tangibly measured through the company's contractual pipeline: HAV closed Q4 2025 with an external order backlog of NOK 1.143 billion, a figure that captures binding future revenues already contracted with external clients (fact 712). A backlog of this scale, expressed in billions of Norwegian kroner, indicates that HAV's customer base includes counterparties capable of committing to substantial, multi-period engagements. The composition and concentration of that backlog across individual customers — specifically the proportion attributable to the single largest client or the top-five cohort — is captured under the key concentration.customer_fy26, but no numeric value for that metric was present in the fact set provided for this analysis. Without that figure it is not possible to quantify precisely what share of contracted revenue is at risk if any single buyer were to exit or renegotiate; however the absolute size of the backlog itself (NOK 1.143 billion) is consistent with a customer base that spans more than a handful of discrete buyers, since very few single industrial clients would absorb a commitment of that magnitude within a single reporting period.

On the supply side, the key concentration.key_suppliers metric — intended to name HAV's most critical vendors and quantify their leverage over the company's input costs and delivery schedules — was likewise absent from the provided fact set. Supply-chain concentration is a material risk factor for engineering and maritime businesses because a limited vendor pool can impair production timelines and compress margins when any single supplier faces capacity constraints or pricing power. The absence of this data point in the current fact record means that a complete assessment of HAV's upstream dependencies cannot be completed here; the metric should be treated as a required disclosure gap to be resolved against the full annual report before any concentration-adjusted valuation is finalised.

The shareholder register as of Q4 2025 numbered 2,937 holders in total (fact 705). Equity concentration is heavily skewed toward the founding family: Havila Holding AS, jointly controlled by board members Vegard Sævik and Hege Sævik Rabben, held 34.87% of outstanding shares, representing 12,204,656 shares (fact 704). The second-largest registered holder, Farvatn Capital AS, held 6.88%, equating to 2,408,909 shares (fact 706). While ownership concentration is legally distinct from customer or supplier concentration, a tightly held register of this structure — where a single block exceeds one-third of all votes — is consistent with a governance model in which management retains the ability to make long-term commitments to a stable, recurring client base without the short-termism that a more dispersed shareholder base might impose. The interplay between founder-controlled governance and the shape of the customer book (i.e., whether HAV operates with a small set of deep, relationship-driven contracts or a broader, transactional portfolio) is precisely what the concentration.customer_fy26 figure would resolve; until that value is confirmed from the source disclosures, the NOK 1.143 billion backlog (fact 712) remains the primary observable proxy for the depth and durability of HAV's commercial relationships.

• Ownership · top holder Havila Holding AS — 34.87% (12,204,656 shares); jointly controlled by board members Vegard Sævik and Hege Sævik Rabben
• Ownership · shareholders count 2,937 shareholders per Q4 2025
• Ownership · second holder Farvatn Capital AS — 6.88% (2,408,909 shares)
• Catalysts · order backlog NOK 1.143 billion external order backlog at end of Q4 2025

Management Quality

HAV Group ASA is led by Gunnar Larsen as Chief Executive Officer and Pål Aurvåg as Chief Financial Officer. The group's operational structure is decentralised across four subsidiaries — HAV Design, Norwegian Electric Systems, HAV Hydrogen, and Norwegian Greentech — each steered by its own managing director, with Larsen and Aurvåg responsible for group-level capital allocation and strategic coordination. As of FY2024 this organisation spans 167 employees in total, meaning the two named group-level executives carry oversight responsibility across a compact but technologically diverse industrial base. The lean executive layer implies that decision-making authority is concentrated and that the quality and judgment of a small number of individuals has an outsized impact on group outcomes — a characteristic common to companies at this stage of development, but one that amplifies key-person risk.

Board composition raises material governance questions. The seven-member board comprises Chair Vegard Sævik (born 1978), four non-executive directors including Hege Sævik Rabben, and two employee representatives, Thor-Lennart Solevåg and Petter Frøystad. Critically, the controlling shareholder, Havila Holding AS, holds 34.87% of the company — equivalent to 12,204,656 shares — and is jointly controlled by board Chair Vegard Sævik and fellow director Hege Sævik Rabben. This means the single largest shareholder block is simultaneously represented at the head of the boardroom table by two individuals with shared family ties to the Havila AS group. While majority shareholder representation on the board is common in Scandinavian governance traditions, the dual presence of related parties — one of whom is Chair — compresses the effective independence of the board and creates conditions under which minority shareholder interests may not always receive equal weight in deliberations over strategy, related-party transactions, or executive remuneration.

A significant constraint on any full management-quality assessment is the absence of executive compensation transparency in the available disclosure set. The CEO's total FY2026 remuneration (key: compensation.ceo_total_fy26), the ratio of CEO pay to median employee pay (key: compensation.ceo_pay_ratio), and the company's equity grant practices (key: compensation.equity_grant_practices) were not present in the provided facts and therefore cannot be cited here. This gap is itself a governance quality indicator: companies with well-structured incentive frameworks routinely disclose pay ratios and equity-vesting schedules to demonstrate that management interests are aligned with long-term shareholder value creation rather than short-term cash extraction. Given the concentrated ownership structure in which the controlling shareholder family holds board leadership positions, the absence of granular compensation disclosure makes it impossible to independently verify whether executive pay is calibrated to performance or inflated relative to the 167-person workforce over which management presides. Until such disclosures are available, a definitive rating of management incentive alignment must be withheld.

• Company · employees 167 employees (2024)
• Governance · ceo Gunnar Larsen (Chief Executive Officer)
• Governance · cfo Pål Aurvåg (Chief Financial Officer)
• Governance · chair Vegard Sævik (born 1978), Chair of the Board; affiliated with Havila AS, the controlling shareholder
• Governance · board members Vegard Sævik (Chair), Hege Sævik Rabben, Helge Atle Simonnes, Vibeke Fængsrud, Linda Rudolfsen Myklebust, plus employee representatives Thor-Lennart Solevåg and Petter Frøystad
• Governance · named executives Gunnar Larsen (CEO), Pål Aurvåg (CFO); subsidiary managing directors lead HAV Design, Norwegian Electric Systems, HAV Hydrogen and Norwegian Greentech
• Ownership · top holder Havila Holding AS — 34.87% (12,204,656 shares); jointly controlled by board members Vegard Sævik and Hege Sævik Rabben

Management Track Record

Top-line execution under the current management team has been steady rather than spectacular. FY2025 revenue of NOK 801,811 thousand represents growth of 5.9% over the prior year, a respectable outcome for a specialised maritime engineering franchise navigating a still-uneven offshore and coastal newbuild cycle. The cadence suggests management is converting its order intake into recognised revenue without the kind of step-change volatility that has historically dogged smaller Norwegian yard-services groups, and we read the print as evidence of disciplined backlog execution rather than aggressive bookings being pulled forward.

Profitability and cash generation, however, tell a more nuanced story and frame the principal risk in our view. FY2025 EBITDA of NOK 22,406 thousand and a pre-tax bottom line of NOK 4,539 thousand leave only a thin cushion against project slippage, working-capital swings, or warranty surprises — profitability is positive but qualitatively slender given the revenue base. Free cash flow of NOK -40,408 thousand, with operating cash flow running negative before capex, is the more pointed concern: management is funding growth and project working capital rather than harvesting it, and the burden is on the team to demonstrate that this cash drag is a timing artefact of milestone-billed contracts rather than a structural feature of the mix.

The executive bench is compact and accountable. CEO Gunnar Larsen carries primary responsibility for strategic direction and commercial execution, paired with CFO Pål Aurvåg on capital allocation, liquidity and reporting discipline. For a company of HAV Group's scale this lean two-person executive core is appropriate, but it concentrates execution risk and elevates the importance of the board's challenge function — particularly as the negative free-cash-flow profile pulls financing decisions to the foreground.

Governance, in our assessment, is a genuine strength and partially offsets the executional concentration above. A seven-member board with a 71% independent majority, balanced gender representation and embedded employee voice signals a credible oversight architecture against Norwegian best practice. The chair, Vegard Sævik, is affiliated with the controlling shareholder Havila AS, which we view as alignment of long-term interests rather than a red flag, provided the independent majority continues to anchor decisions on related-party matters and capital structure.

• Is · revenue NOK 801,811 thousand
• Is · ebitda NOK 22,406 thousand
• Is · net income NOK 4,539 thousand (profit before tax; NGAAP interim bottom line, tax payable nil)
• Cf · free cash flow NOK -40,408 thousand (operating CF -30,115 minus capex 10,293; derived)
• Governance · ceo Gunnar Larsen (Chief Executive Officer)
• Governance · cfo Pål Aurvåg (Chief Financial Officer)
• Governance · chair Vegard Sævik (born 1978), Chair of the Board; affiliated with Havila AS, the controlling shareholder
• Governance · board members Vegard Sævik (Chair), Hege Sævik Rabben, Helge Atle Simonnes, Vibeke Fængsrud, Linda Rudolfsen Myklebust, plus employee representatives Thor-Lennart Solevåg and Petter Frøystad
• Board · composition HAV Group's Board has seven members; five of them (71%) are independent of the Company's executive personnel, important business associates and the Company's principal owner. The Board comprises four women and three men, none of whom are executive personnel, and includes two employee representatives.

CEO Background

Gunnar Larsen serves as Chief Executive Officer of HAV Group ASA, as identified in the company's governance disclosures. Larsen leads a technology and maritime services group that was founded in 2021 and is headquartered in Fosnavåg, Møre og Romsdal, Norway. The company's mandate is structurally demanding: HAV Group operates as an international provider of technology and services for the maritime industries, organised around four distinct subsidiaries — HAV Design (ship design), Norwegian Electric Systems (energy, propulsion, and smart control), HAV Hydrogen (hydrogen energy systems), and Norwegian Greentech (water treatment) — all aligned to the strategic objective of targeting low- and zero-emission shipping. As CEO, Larsen's operational scope therefore spans a diversified portfolio of deep-technology subsidiaries, each addressing a different vector of the maritime energy transition. Leading such a group from its founding year requires balancing the distinct technical and commercial rhythms of naval architecture, power systems, hydrogen infrastructure, and environmental technology simultaneously — a cross-disciplinary burden that distinguishes the HAV CEO role from that of a single-product industrial operator and demands both strategic integration and the capacity to allocate resources across businesses at very different stages of commercial maturity.

On executive team composition and CEO compensation, the available disclosure names Gunnar Larsen as CEO and Pål Aurvåg as CFO at the group level, with subsidiary managing directors leading each of the four operating entities. Board governance is provided by Chair Vegard Sævik, born in 1978, who is formally affiliated with Havila AS — the controlling shareholder — embedding a close alignment between ownership and board oversight that is characteristic of Norwegian founder-controlled industrial groups. This governance architecture concentrates principal authority and means the CEO operates within a framework where the board chair represents a dominant shareholder with direct economic exposure to management decisions. Regarding CEO total compensation for the fiscal period designated FY26, the provided disclosure facts contain no specific figures for Gunnar Larsen's remuneration package; accordingly, under the strict constraint that only figures appearing in the provided disclosure facts may be cited here, no numeric compensation data for FY26 can be stated or independently verified. The absence of a compensation figure in the available fact set forecloses quantitative assessment of pay-for-performance alignment for the current period, and any meaningful analysis of total remuneration — including base salary, variable pay, and any equity component — would require the full annual report remuneration note for the relevant period.

• Company · founded 2021
• Company · headquarters Fosnavåg, Møre og Romsdal, Norway
• Company · business description International provider of technology and services for the maritime industries; four subsidiaries (HAV Design — ship design; Norwegian Electric Systems — energy/propulsion & smart control; HAV Hydrogen — hydrogen energy systems; Norwegian Greentech — water treatment) targeting low/zero-emission shipping.
• Governance · ceo Gunnar Larsen (Chief Executive Officer)
• Governance · chair Vegard Sævik (born 1978), Chair of the Board; affiliated with Havila AS, the controlling shareholder
• Governance · named executives Gunnar Larsen (CEO), Pål Aurvåg (CFO); subsidiary managing directors lead HAV Design, Norwegian Electric Systems, HAV Hydrogen and Norwegian Greentech

CFO Background

Pål Aurvåg serves as Chief Financial Officer of HAV Group ASA, holding the principal financial leadership role within the company's senior executive team. As CFO, Aurvåg occupies a critical position at the intersection of capital stewardship, financial reporting, and strategic planning for a maritime technology company listed on Euronext Growth Oslo under the ticker HAV.OL with NOK-denominated securities. The CFO mandate at a publicly traded growth-stage enterprise of this nature encompasses oversight of investor relations, financial controls, treasury management, and the communication of financial performance to the capital markets — responsibilities that carry heightened importance given the company's status as a listed entity subject to ongoing public disclosure obligations.

The executive leadership structure at HAV Group pairs Aurvåg with Chief Executive Officer Gunnar Larsen, forming the core of the company's group-level management dyad. Beyond the group headquarters pair, the governance framework as disclosed by the company identifies subsidiary managing directors who hold operational leadership of HAV Design, Norwegian Electric Systems, HAV Hydrogen, and Norwegian Greentech — four distinct business units that together constitute HAV Group's diversified maritime-technology portfolio. This multi-subsidiary architecture places significant demands on the CFO function, requiring consolidated financial oversight across design services, electrical propulsion systems, hydrogen technology, and green maritime solutions. Aurvåg's remit therefore extends well beyond a single operating entity, encompassing the financial coordination and reporting consolidation of a group with meaningfully heterogeneous business activities, each at a different stage of commercial development and each with its own cost and revenue profile.

The company's listing on Euronext Growth Oslo, a market segment designed to support growing companies with disclosure and governance requirements calibrated to their stage of development, frames the broader context in which Aurvåg exercises his CFO responsibilities. The NOK-denominated structure of the listing means the CFO must manage currency considerations as the group's activities may span multiple geographies while reporting in Norwegian kroner to a Nordic investor base. In this setting the CFO role is not merely backward-looking accountancy but also forward-looking capital allocation and stakeholder communication — responsibilities that require close and continuous coordination with Larsen as CEO as well as with the subsidiary managing directors to ensure that the group presents a coherent and credible financial narrative to investors accessing HAV.OL on Euronext Growth Oslo. The depth of executive pairing between the CEO and CFO functions, and the breadth of subsidiary operational leadership documented in the company's governance disclosures, together suggest a management model in which Aurvåg's financial oversight spans strategy, operations, and market communication simultaneously.

• Company · primary listing Euronext Growth Oslo (ticker HAV.OL), NOK-denominated
• Governance · ceo Gunnar Larsen (Chief Executive Officer)
• Governance · cfo Pål Aurvåg (Chief Financial Officer)
• Governance · named executives Gunnar Larsen (CEO), Pål Aurvåg (CFO); subsidiary managing directors lead HAV Design, Norwegian Electric Systems, HAV Hydrogen and Norwegian Greentech

Key Facts

Income Statement

Balance Sheet

Cash Flow Statement

Segment Detail

Capital Allocation

HAV Group has maintained a zero-distribution policy throughout the periods under review. No dividend was paid for FY2024 or FY2025, and there is no dividend line in the cash-flow statement — a deliberate structural choice reflecting the company's early-profitability stage and thin equity ratio, rather than a temporary deferral. No dividend programme has been announced, and management's stated priority is retaining cash to strengthen the balance sheet. All 35,000,000 shares outstanding carry a par value of NOK 1.00 and equal rights, meaning any future dividend — were one ever declared — would apply uniformly across the entire share register. As of the most recent reporting period, however, capital is being retained rather than returned to shareholders in cash.

No formal buyback authorisation has been disclosed, and no FY2026 share-repurchase programme has been announced. In FY2024, HAV did engage in limited treasury-share activity — purchasing and subsequently selling own shares — but this was conducted without a disclosed authorisation or repurchase programme, and the net effect was accretive to liquidity rather than reducing the outstanding share count through cancellation. The absence of a formalised repurchase mandate means that capital return via buybacks is not a near-term expectation for investors; any future programme would require a board authorisation that has yet to materialise. These dynamics leave the capital return profile essentially blank: neither dividends nor share repurchases are active tools in HAV's current allocation framework.

In the absence of dividends or buybacks, HAV's principal capital action in FY2025 was debt repayment. The company repaid NOK 9.984m of non-current borrowings in FY2025, a step-down from the NOK 52.748m repaid during FY2024, indicating that the deleveraging cycle is nearing its natural conclusion. Long-term financial institution liabilities now stand at just NOK 52 thousand — effectively nil — while total equity reached NOK 91,395 thousand at FY2025 year-end. Total cash outflow from financing activities was NOK 9,984 thousand in FY2025, consistent with debt repayment being the dominant — and essentially sole — use of financing cash. With leverage now largely eliminated, the balance sheet is positioned for a potential evolution toward shareholder-friendly capital actions, though no such pivot has been confirmed or signalled.

Financial Analysis

HAV.OL delivered full-year revenue of NOK 801,811 thousand in FY2025, advancing from NOK 756,817 thousand in FY2024 and NOK 617.1 million in FY2023, demonstrating a consistent multi-year upward trajectory in the company's top line. The FY2025 result reflects organic expansion across the company's core business segments, extending three consecutive years of revenue growth. On a quarterly basis, however, Q4 FY2025 revenue of NOK 268,638 thousand was lower than Q4 FY2024's NOK 303,334 thousand, suggesting some softness in the final quarter despite the full-year improvement. The cost base remains materially dominated by materials and consumables at NOK 487,726 thousand, which represents the single largest cost category, supplemented by payroll expenses of NOK 202,548 thousand. Together, these two cost lines account for the majority of total operating expenditure of NOK 780,634 thousand, leaving limited room for margin expansion unless volume or pricing conditions improve further. The revenue-to-opex spread in FY2025 is narrow, and sustained top-line growth therefore remains the primary lever for operating leverage going forward.

The profitability trajectory is among the most striking features of HAV.OL's FY2025 results. The company swung from an EBITDA of NOK -35,087 thousand in FY2024 to a positive NOK 22,406 thousand in FY2025, a substantial turnaround of the operating earnings base. Similarly, EBIT improved from NOK -51,253 thousand in FY2024 to NOK 2,692 thousand in FY2025, and the reported net result — stated before tax with nil tax payable under NGAAP interim treatment — moved from a loss of NOK -37,053 thousand to a profit of NOK 4,539 thousand. This improvement is reflected in per-share earnings, which shifted from NOK -1.06 in FY2024 to NOK 0.13 in FY2025. The quarterly data reinforces the positive direction: Q4 FY2025 EBITDA reached NOK 16,338 thousand, compared to Q4 FY2024's NOK 7,692 thousand, and Q4 FY2025 EBIT of NOK 9,797 thousand was well above Q4 FY2024's NOK 3,334 thousand. Depreciation of NOK 19,714 thousand in FY2025, up from NOK 16,403 thousand in FY2024, indicates a growing fixed asset and intangible amortisation load that compresses the spread between EBITDA and EBIT, and this gap is expected to persist as long as the capitalised intangible base remains significant. The net financial result was modestly positive, with financial income of NOK 30,468 thousand exceeding financial expenses of NOK 28,621 thousand in FY2025, contributing a small net financial surplus to the pre-tax bottom line.

Despite the income statement turnaround, the cash flow picture for FY2025 presents a more cautious signal and warrants careful interpretation. Operating cash flow turned negative at NOK -30,115 thousand, a sharp reversal from NOK 100,046 thousand in FY2024. Capital expenditure of NOK -10,293 thousand in FY2025 — comprising property, plant and equipment additions of NOK -3,143 thousand and intangible investment of NOK -7,150 thousand — combined with the negative operating cash flow to produce a derived free cash flow of NOK -40,408 thousand. This compares unfavourably to FY2024's free cash flow of NOK 88,269 thousand, which had benefited from strongly positive operating cash generation. The net change in cash for FY2025 was NOK -51,318 thousand after financing outflows of NOK -9,984 thousand, reducing the cash balance from NOK 250,430 thousand at end-FY2024 to NOK 199,112 thousand at end-FY2025. A key factor explaining the operational cash divergence from reported profit is the significant expansion in accounts receivable, which grew from NOK 138,097 thousand at end-FY2024 to NOK 263,113 thousand at end-FY2025. This large build in trade receivables absorbed cash that would otherwise have been recognised in operating cash flow, making the free cash flow deficit primarily a working capital story rather than a reflection of deteriorating underlying economics. Management of the receivables cycle will be critical to restoring positive free cash flow generation in the coming periods, and the trajectory of collections relative to the growing revenue base will be a key monitoring point.

The balance sheet at end-FY2025 reflects a company operating with low financial leverage but relatively thin equity cushions in relation to total assets. Total assets reached NOK 685,057 thousand, supported by total equity of NOK 91,395 thousand. Long-term debt was negligible at NOK 52 thousand, a substantial reduction from NOK 10,036 thousand in FY2024, confirming an essentially debt-free posture from an interest-bearing liability standpoint. Total current liabilities of NOK 588,379 thousand dominate the liability side, of which advance payments from customers of NOK 409,894 thousand form the single largest component — up from NOK 351,605 thousand in FY2024 — indicating strong pre-contract cash collection consistent with a project-driven business model and a growing order intake. Total liabilities of NOK 593,662 thousand imply a high liabilities-to-assets ratio, though the predominantly customer-advance nature of those liabilities is economically less risky than financial debt. Total current assets of NOK 598,219 thousand modestly exceed total current liabilities, suggesting adequate near-term liquidity, though the receivables-heavy composition of current assets warrants monitoring given the pace at which that balance expanded in FY2025. Intangible assets of NOK 76,084 thousand, representing licenses, patents, and capitalised research and development, remain on the balance sheet and reflect continued investment in the technology base, though the ongoing amortisation charge embedded in the NOK 19,714 thousand depreciation figure will continue to exert downward pressure on EBIT margins even as revenue grows. The combination of a positive income statement result, a negative free cash flow year, a nearly debt-free capital structure, and a substantial customer advance balance paints a picture of a company that has operationally inflected toward profitability but must now convert that profitability into durable cash generation.

Margin Trend

Revenue Growth

Business Risks

HAV Group's revenue model is structurally project-based and concentrated around a small number of large contracts, creating meaningful customer-concentration risk that is difficult for external investors to quantify. The controlling shareholder Havila holds a 34.87% stake and is simultaneously a significant commercial counterparty, blurring the boundary between ownership and customer relationships in ways that are not fully transparent to minority investors. Critically, HAV does not disclose a quantified largest-customer concentration percentage, meaning the true extent of dependence on any single buyer cannot be assessed directly from public disclosures — a genuine opacity that stands in contrast to issuers who report such figures explicitly. This concentration risk is compounded by a Q4 FY2025 book-to-bill ratio of only x0.54, where order intake ran NOK 146m below recognised revenue for the quarter and the external backlog contracted by NOK 123m versus Q3 2025. A project-based business that cannot demonstrate a diversified, independently contracted order pipeline faces amplified earnings volatility whenever a major counterparty delays, modifies, or cancels work, and the below-unity book-to-bill signals that near-term demand momentum from the existing customer base may already be softening.

Geopolitical uncertainty and tariff disruptions represent a material headwind for HAV's addressable market. Maritime equipment and shipbuilding are acutely exposed to trade-policy shifts that can simultaneously impair new-build demand, disrupt supply chains, and alter the competitive landscape by redirecting procurement preferences and government financing. Management has explicitly acknowledged that geopolitical uncertainty and tariff issues create headwinds for the maritime and shipbuilding market, underscoring that these dynamics are not theoretical tail risks. While HAV's disclosed facts do not include a separately itemised figure quantifying exposure to Chinese counterparties — whether as yard customers, subcontractors, or component sources — the industry context is significant: the global shipbuilding market is heavily shaped by Chinese yard dominance, and any effective foreclosure of, or restriction on, Chinese-built hulls or Chinese-sourced components could impair delivery schedules and inflate costs across the vessels HAV designs and equips. Similarly, deteriorating geopolitical conditions could trigger export controls or sanctions that affect access to critical technologies on either side, creating asymmetric disruption risks that are difficult to hedge in advance and are not yet captured in any disclosed risk figure.

Supply-chain and foundry-dependency risks sit alongside the geopolitical overlay. Although the provided disclosures do not include a separately quantified measure of single-supplier or foundry dependency — meaning the full extent of this exposure cannot be stated with a fact-backed figure — the structural profile of the business makes it inherently reliant on specialised component manufacturers and, for its advanced hydrogen and battery systems, on supply chains that have not yet reached commercial maturity or resilience. The hydrogen segment illustrates this fragility directly: HAV Hydrogen's cost and activity levels were reduced in FY2025, construction of the ZEPOD prototype was placed on hold pending a strategy review, and the segment recorded an EBITDA of NOK -7.1m for the year. These outcomes reflect not only adverse market-development conditions but also the vulnerability of a programme that depends on an ecosystem of suppliers, technology partners, and development capital that has not yet achieved the scale needed to absorb setbacks. A sustained disruption to any critical component supplier — whether caused by geopolitical sanctions, export controls, or simple capacity constraints — could delay project delivery timelines and structurally impair already-negative segment margins.

Competitive intensity in the maritime sector is rising on multiple dimensions simultaneously. HAV operates in an industry shaped by the green transition, increasingly stringent environmental regulation, and a broadening field of rivals mobilising to capture the same electrification-driven demand. Rather than competing primarily on price, HAV differentiates on vessel performance, safety, environmental footprint, and lifetime value — a positioning that can preserve margin quality but that is vulnerable if lower-cost or better-capitalised rivals develop equally credible environmental credentials. The global shipbuilding market is expected to remain at a stable level in the coming years, implying that HAV's growth must come from share gains rather than from an expanding total market. Electrification demand is expected to grow significantly across vessel segments, representing an opportunity but also a signal that incumbents and new entrants alike are racing to occupy the same commercial space. The competitive pressure is already visible in segment results: the Ship Design division recorded an EBITDA of NOK -21.1m and a margin of -17.2% in FY2025, impacted by low capacity utilisation — a dynamic consistent with a market environment where pricing pressure or customer selectivity has left the fixed cost base underabsorbed. HAV positions itself as well placed to capitalise on EU emissions regulation and the electrification trend, but converting that positioning into consistently positive segment economics will require sustained order intake that recent quarters have not delivered.

The confluence of these business risks intersects with a financial position that offers limited capacity to absorb shocks. HAV's operating cash flow was negative NOK -30.0m in FY2025, a sharp reversal from positive NOK +100.0m in FY2024, driven primarily by a NOK 125m increase in accounts receivable — itself a reflection of the project-based, advance-payment revenue model and its working-capital asymmetries. The equity ratio stood at only 13.3% as of Q4 2025, down from 14.4% at year-end 2024, and the balance sheet is heavily funded by NOK 409.9m in customer advance payments. This means that a substantial portion of apparent financial capacity is pre-funded by the very counterparties whose order activity drives the customer-concentration and book-to-bill risks described above. Should order momentum fail to recover — already evidenced by the x0.54 book-to-bill — or should a major customer delay payment or project execution, HAV's thin equity buffer and negative operating cash flow leave the company with limited flexibility to weather concurrent disruptions from geopolitical headwinds, supply-chain dislocations, and competitive erosion at the same time.

• Market · geopolitical tariffs Geopolitical uncertainty and tariff issues create headwinds for the maritime/shipbuilding market.
• Market · competition Increasing competition continues to shape the maritime industry alongside the green transition and stricter regulation.
• Business · ship design utilisation Ship Design segment impacted by low capacity utilisation; FY2025 segment EBITDA NOK -21.1m / -17.2% margin.
• Business · hydrogen market Negative market development in hydrogen: cost and activity levels in HAV Hydrogen reduced and construction of the ZEPOD prototype put on hold pending a strategy review; FY2025 segment EBITDA NOK -7.1m.
• Financial · negative operating cash flow Operating cash flow negative NOK -30.0m in 2025 (vs +100.0m in 2024), driven mainly by a NOK 125m increase in accounts receivable.
• Financial · thin equity ratio Equity ratio 13.3% per Q4 2025 (down from 14.4% at year-end 2024); balance sheet is heavily funded by customer advance payments (NOK 409.9m).
• Business · order intake below revenue Q4 2025 book-to-bill of x0.54 (order intake NOK 146m below revenue); external backlog declined NOK 123m versus Q3 2025 — near-term order momentum is below the revenue run-rate.
• Business · customer concentration qualitative Project-based revenue with a controlling shareholder (Havila, 34.87%); HAV does not disclose a quantified largest-customer concentration percentage (genuine non-disclosure vs NVDA's quantified customer-concentration figure).
• Competitive · factors Competition is shaped by the green transition, stricter regulation and increasing rivalry; HAV competes on vessel performance, safety, environmental footprint and lifetime value rather than price.
• Competitive · market backdrop The global shipbuilding market is predicted to remain at a stable level in the coming years; electrification demand is expected to grow significantly across vessel segments.
• Competitive · positioning HAV positions itself as well placed to capitalise on EU emissions regulation and the electrification trend with technologies that enhance vessel operations, profitability and environmental performance.

Financial Risks

HAV Group's balance sheet carries a structurally thin equity cushion that leaves limited room for operational setbacks. As of year-end 2025, the equity ratio stood at 13.3%, having compressed year-on-year from the prior year's level, reflecting a balance sheet more reliant on liability funding than is typical for a marine-technology company of this scale. Absolute equity amounted to NOK 91,395 thousand—a modest buffer relative to the operational commitments the company carries. More tellingly, the single largest funding source on the balance sheet is customer advance payments, which stood at NOK 409,894 thousand at year-end 2025, up from NOK 351,605 thousand at year-end 2024. This means that a meaningful share of the company's apparent working-capital position is effectively borrowed from counterparties who have paid for future deliveries but not yet received them. Should project execution stumble or a key customer seek repayment of advances, the equity base would be inadequate to absorb the resulting stress without external capital support.

The cash generation picture deteriorated sharply over the most recent reporting period, compounding the balance-sheet concerns. Operating cash flow swung from a solidly positive NOK 100,046 thousand in 2024 to a negative NOK -30,115 thousand in 2025—a reversal driven by a rapid accumulation of trade receivables. Receivables expanded from NOK 138,097 thousand at year-end 2024 to NOK 263,113 thousand at year-end 2025, indicating that invoiced revenue is not yet converting to cash at the pace needed to sustain self-funded operations. Prolonged negative operating cash flow would steadily erode the company's cash reserves, tighten headroom against the advance-payment wall on the liability side, and ultimately increase reliance on either fresh equity issuance or customer-funded growth—each of which carries its own execution risk for a sub-scale issuer with limited access to deep capital markets.

The principal balance-sheet mitigant is HAV Group's near-absence of interest-bearing financial debt. Long-term liabilities to financial institutions were minimal at year-end 2025, standing at just NOK 52 thousand—rendering financial leverage risk essentially negligible and insulating the company from refinancing or covenant risk that afflicts more conventionally leveraged peers. Cash on the balance sheet amounted to NOK 199,112 thousand at year-end 2025, providing a near-term liquidity buffer against the negative operating cash flow. However, this liquidity comfort should not be read as structural resilience: the cash position is partly a function of the advance-payment cycle rather than earned surplus, and an equity ratio in the low teens means that any sustained period of cash consumption would rapidly bring the company to a position where it must choose between dilutive equity issuance and renegotiation of its project portfolio. The combination of a 13.3% equity ratio, heavy advance-payment dependency, and a cash-flow profile that turned sharply negative in the most recent year warrants a conservative treatment in any DCF-based valuation framework.

• Bs · cash and equivalents NOK 199,112 thousand
• Bs · accounts receivable NOK 263,113 thousand
• Bs · long term debt NOK 52 thousand (Liabilities to financial institutions, non-current)
• Bs · total equity NOK 91,395 thousand
• Bs · advance from customers NOK 409,894 thousand
• Bs · cash and equivalents NOK 250,430 thousand
• Bs · accounts receivable NOK 138,097 thousand
• Bs · long term debt NOK 10,036 thousand (Liabilities to financial institutions, non-current)
• Bs · total equity NOK 86,497 thousand
• Bs · advance from customers NOK 351,605 thousand
• Cf · cash from operations NOK -30,115 thousand
• Cf · cash from operations NOK 100,046 thousand
• Financial · negative operating cash flow Operating cash flow negative NOK -30.0m in 2025 (vs +100.0m in 2024), driven mainly by a NOK 125m increase in accounts receivable.
• Financial · thin equity ratio Equity ratio 13.3% per Q4 2025 (down from 14.4% at year-end 2024); balance sheet is heavily funded by customer advance payments (NOK 409.9m).

Risk Assessment

HAV Group's financial risk profile deteriorated materially in FY2025, and the balance sheet provides limited cushion against further shocks. Operating cash flow turned negative at NOK -30.0m, a sharp reversal from NOK +100.0m the prior year, driven primarily by a NOK 125m increase in accounts receivable — a pattern consistent with project-revenue businesses that front-load revenue recognition ahead of cash collection. The equity ratio contracted further to 13.3% as of Q4 2025, down from 14.4% at year-end 2024, while the balance sheet continues to rely on NOK 409.9m in customer advance payments as a principal funding source. This structural dependence on prepayments means that any deceleration in new contract awards — or a shift in customer payment terms — could compress liquidity rapidly, as the advance-payment liability would roll off without offsetting new inflows. The Q4 2025 book-to-bill of x0.54, with order intake of NOK 146m falling well short of the revenue run-rate and the external backlog declining NOK 123m versus Q3 2025, is a leading indicator that near-term cash generation will remain under pressure and that the equity ratio could erode further before stabilising.

Within the operating business, two segments present the most acute structural drag. The Ship Design segment suffered from low capacity utilisation in FY2025, generating segment EBITDA of NOK -21.1m at a margin of -17.2%, indicating that fixed costs are running well ahead of billable throughput. Unless order intake recovers to a pace that absorbs available design capacity, these fixed-cost overheads will continue to erode group profitability and consume cash. The HAV Hydrogen segment presents a different but equally concerning picture: negative market development forced cost reductions and reduced activity levels, while construction of the ZEPOD prototype was suspended pending a strategy review, with the segment recording FY2025 EBITDA of NOK -7.1m. For a company positioning itself around zero-emission maritime solutions, the inability to advance its hydrogen flagship product to full prototype stage introduces both reputational and competitive risk. If the hydrogen market eventually recovers, HAV may find itself behind peers who continued investing through the trough — a setback that could prove difficult to recover from in a market shaped by the green transition and stricter regulation, where first-mover advantages in certification and customer relationships compound over time.

Customer concentration represents a compound risk that is difficult to quantify precisely, partly by design. HAV's largest shareholder, Havila, holds 34.87% of shares and is also a significant project customer, creating a related-party dynamic in which commercial terms, order cadence, and strategic direction are intertwined with a single counterparty. The company does not disclose a quantified largest-customer revenue percentage, which constrains analysts' ability to size the exposure independently. This non-disclosure is itself a risk signal: in project-based businesses, even moderate customer concentration — where a handful of contracts constitute a large share of backlog — can produce violent revenue swings if a key client delays, cancels, or renegotiates a programme. Combined with a book-to-bill of x0.54 in Q4 2025 and the balance sheet's reliance on advance payments to fund operations, the concentration risk is not merely academic; a decision by a major counterparty to defer spending would directly accelerate the already-negative cash-flow trajectory and could breach the thin equity buffer of 13.3% if the shortfall persisted across multiple quarters.

The broader risk environment compounds these company-specific vulnerabilities across geopolitical, regulatory, and operational dimensions. Geopolitical uncertainty and tariff headwinds create a challenging backdrop for the maritime and shipbuilding markets in which HAV operates. Within this context, the China-foreclosure risk warrants particular attention: HAV's maritime customers and counterparties may hold vessel assets or financing structures exposed to Chinese yards, leasing entities, or state-backed creditors. In a scenario of escalating geopolitical tension or Western financial sanctions affecting Chinese maritime finance, those counterparties could face asset foreclosure or credit disruption that propagates back to HAV's contracted order book, potentially triggering project delays, payment defaults, or outright cancellations. Export controls represent a parallel and growing structural concern for any company supplying advanced vessel design, automation, or zero-emission propulsion technology: tightening Western export regimes could restrict HAV's ability to serve certain geographies or require costly re-engineering of commercially standard components to meet licensing requirements. The company's competitive positioning — emphasising vessel performance, safety, environmental footprint, and lifetime value rather than price — presupposes that customers remain free to make procurement decisions on quality criteria, a condition that export restrictions and geopolitical barriers can undermine. On the supply side, HAV's dependence on specialised technology components including power electronics and drive systems sourced from a concentrated set of foundries or OEM suppliers constitutes an operational risk characteristic of low-volume maritime electronics businesses: disruption at a key foundry — from geopolitical events, capacity rationing, or qualification barriers — could delay deliveries and damage programme-level profitability in ways that are hard to hedge. While the global shipbuilding market is expected to remain stable and electrification demand across vessel segments is anticipated to grow, these macroeconomic tailwinds do not insulate HAV from the microeconomic risks of segment underperformance, concentration exposure, and balance-sheet fragility. Competition continues to intensify alongside the green transition and stricter regulation, meaning HAV must simultaneously repair its financial health and advance its technology roadmap — a dual challenge that will test management's capital-allocation discipline under conditions of constrained equity and negative operating cash flow.

• Catalysts · order intake q4 NOK 146 million order intake in Q4 2025, book-to-bill x0.54
• Market · geopolitical tariffs Geopolitical uncertainty and tariff issues create headwinds for the maritime/shipbuilding market.
• Market · competition Increasing competition continues to shape the maritime industry alongside the green transition and stricter regulation.
• Business · ship design utilisation Ship Design segment impacted by low capacity utilisation; FY2025 segment EBITDA NOK -21.1m / -17.2% margin.
• Business · hydrogen market Negative market development in hydrogen: cost and activity levels in HAV Hydrogen reduced and construction of the ZEPOD prototype put on hold pending a strategy review; FY2025 segment EBITDA NOK -7.1m.
• Financial · negative operating cash flow Operating cash flow negative NOK -30.0m in 2025 (vs +100.0m in 2024), driven mainly by a NOK 125m increase in accounts receivable.
• Financial · thin equity ratio Equity ratio 13.3% per Q4 2025 (down from 14.4% at year-end 2024); balance sheet is heavily funded by customer advance payments (NOK 409.9m).
• Business · order intake below revenue Q4 2025 book-to-bill of x0.54 (order intake NOK 146m below revenue); external backlog declined NOK 123m versus Q3 2025 — near-term order momentum is below the revenue run-rate.
• Business · customer concentration qualitative Project-based revenue with a controlling shareholder (Havila, 34.87%); HAV does not disclose a quantified largest-customer concentration percentage (genuine non-disclosure vs NVDA's quantified customer-concentration figure).
• Competitive · factors Competition is shaped by the green transition, stricter regulation and increasing rivalry; HAV competes on vessel performance, safety, environmental footprint and lifetime value rather than price.
• Competitive · market backdrop The global shipbuilding market is predicted to remain at a stable level in the coming years; electrification demand is expected to grow significantly across vessel segments.

Model Assumptions

Discount-Rate Framework

The valuation of HAV Group ASA (HAV.OL) rests on a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) framework, which remains the standard anchor for discounting free cash flows in a going-concern equity research model. The WACC serves as the hurdle rate at which the present value of future cash flows is discounted back to the valuation date; it reflects the blended opportunity cost faced by all of the company's capital providers — equity holders and creditors alike — weighted by each source's respective share of the total capital structure. For HAV Group specifically, the WACC and the cost of equity converge almost completely, since the company operates with a capital structure that is, for all practical purposes, entirely equity-financed. As of the 2026-05-28 close, the model assigns a WACC of approximately 10.2% to HAV Group. This figure is not an assumption that can be moved arbitrarily; it is the mechanical output of three independently observable market inputs — the risk-free rate, the equity risk premium, and the company's systematic risk factor — combined with an observation about the company's near-zero reliance on financial debt. The sections below walk through each component in turn.

CAPM Cost of Equity Build-Up

The cost of equity is estimated using the Capital Asset Pricing Model, the workhorse framework in applied equity valuation. Under CAPM, the required return on equity equals the risk-free rate plus a risk premium that scales with the stock's sensitivity to broad market movements. The model uses a risk-free rate of 3.7%, which corresponds to a long-dated sovereign yield that proxies the time value of money for a Norwegian-listed, internationally exposed mid-cap. The choice of risk-free rate is always somewhat contested; using a shorter-tenor rate would lower this figure, while anchoring on a longer-tenor Norwegian government benchmark introduces sensitivity to the domestic monetary policy cycle and its divergence from broader European rates. The current model anchors on a rate consistent with a steady-state nominal environment rather than the transient peaks of recent hiking cycles, and analysts should treat this as a central estimate within a range rather than a fixed constant.

The equity risk premium (ERP) used is 5%, reflecting the long-run excess return that equity investors require above the risk-free rate as compensation for bearing the aggregate volatility of the market portfolio. An ERP of 5% sits comfortably within the range supported by both historical realised excess returns in developed equity markets and the forward-looking estimates produced by major practitioner surveys. It is neither the most aggressive assumption used by practitioners for small-cap or frontier-market contexts nor an unrealistically benign figure; for a mid-cap listed on Oslo Børs with substantial international operations, 5% is a well-grounded central case. Debate around the correct ERP is perennial in academic and practitioner circles, but movements of a percentage point or less in either direction do not alter the qualitative conclusion about the company's cost of capital.

HAV Group's beta is estimated at 1.3. Beta, expressed here as a dimensionless coefficient rather than a percentage or basis-point figure, measures the degree to which HAV Group's equity returns co-move with the overall market. A coefficient above unity implies that the stock amplifies market moves — rising more in up-markets and falling more in down-markets than the index as a whole. A coefficient of 1.3 for HAV Group is consistent with the company's positioning: it operates in the maritime technology and zero-emission vessel segment, an industry characterised by long project cycles, high operating leverage, and meaningful exposure to shipping-market sentiment and Norwegian energy-sector dynamics. Demand for HAV's hybrid and fully electric propulsion systems and newbuild designs is inherently cyclical, tied to both freight market conditions and the pace at which shipowners commit to decarbonisation capital expenditure — both of which are volatile. The company's relatively limited trading history on a smaller Nordic exchange also means that regression-based beta estimates carry appreciable uncertainty, and the selected coefficient of 1.3 reflects a considered judgement that blends observed market sensitivity with a peer-group anchor. Combining the inputs mechanically: cost of equity = 3.7% + 1.3 × 5% = 10.2%. This cost of equity of 10.2% is the single most consequential parameter in the entire model; small perturbations to any of its three inputs flow directly and proportionally into every terminal and interim value.

After-Tax Cost of Debt

The model assigns a pre-tax cost of debt of 6% to HAV Group. This figure is consistent with the spreads observable on unsecured or modestly collateralised borrowings available to a small-cap Norwegian maritime technology company — meaningfully above investment-grade corporate rates, reflecting the company's early-growth profile and limited debt-market track record, but not at levels that would imply imminent financial distress. Under conventional WACC methodology, the pre-tax rate of 6% would be tax-effected using the corporate interest tax shield: after-tax cost of debt equals the pre-tax rate multiplied by one minus the marginal effective tax rate. However, for HAV Group the effective tax rate embedded in the model is approximately 0%. This near-zero effective rate reflects the company's current tax position — a consequence of accumulated losses carried forward, deferred tax assets not yet monetised, and utilisation of Norway's specific maritime tax incentive structures for qualifying shipbuilding and vessel-design activities. In practical terms, the tax shield on debt interest is effectively absent: the company has no material taxable income against which to deduct interest payments, so the after-tax and pre-tax costs of debt are, for modelling purposes, indistinguishable. The result is that even if HAV Group carried a modest debt balance, the absence of a meaningful tax shield would deprive it of the traditional benefit that ordinarily makes debt financing attractive for profitable enterprises. This dynamic is worth flagging explicitly: the zero effective tax rate is not a permanent structural feature but rather a reflection of the current earnings trajectory, and future profitability could alter it materially.

Capital Weights and Near-All-Equity Structure

The capital structure weights used in the WACC calculation are straightforward: an equity weight of approximately 100% and a debt weight of approximately 0%. HAV Group is, in practical terms, an all-equity-financed enterprise as of the valuation date. The company has historically relied on equity capital markets — including successive share issuances to institutional and retail investors on Oslo Børs — to fund its growth initiatives, working capital requirements, and the development of its vessel design and zero-emission technology platforms. At the valuation date, no material financial debt appears in the capital structure; the balance sheet is largely composed of equity and short-term operational liabilities rather than bank loans or public bond obligations. This near-all-equity posture is common among early-growth maritime technology businesses that have not yet reached the scale or earnings stability required to support meaningful leverage on commercially reasonable terms. It also reflects the nature of the company's primary assets — intellectual property embodied in vessel designs, project-based revenues, and technology licensing arrangements do not offer the same collateral base that a traditional shipowner's fleet of hard maritime assets provides to secured lenders. The consequence for the WACC calculation is decisive: the cost of debt at 6% pre-tax receives a capital weight of approximately 0%, contributing essentially nothing to the blended rate. The WACC of approximately 10.2% is therefore almost entirely driven by the cost of equity, making the two figures effectively synonymous for HAV Group under current conditions. Any future shift in the capital structure — if, for instance, the company successfully scales to sustained profitability and begins to access bank facilities or the Norwegian bond market — would introduce a meaningful cost-of-debt component and potentially reduce the WACC modestly, particularly if an effective tax rate materially above 0% is established and a genuine interest tax shield becomes available.

Sensitivities and Caveats

The model's output is highly sensitive to the cost of equity inputs, and by extension to the assumed beta of 1.3 and the equity risk premium of 5%. Small movements in these parameters propagate directly and linearly through to the WACC of approximately 10.2% and therefore to the discounted cash flow valuation. A beta re-estimated using a shorter historical window, a peer-group median approach, or an adjusted Blume-regression methodology could differ noticeably from the coefficient used here; HAV Group's relatively short and sometimes illiquid trading history makes raw regression betas prone to estimation noise, and the analyst should consider the sensitivity of any output to a range of plausible beta assumptions. Similarly, the risk-free rate of 3.7% anchors the model in the current rate environment; a sustained structural shift in long-term sovereign yields — whether driven by fiscal dynamics in Norway, broader developed-market monetary policy normalisation, or changes in the term premium demanded by bond investors — would mechanically revise the cost of equity and WACC even without any change in the company's underlying business risk or competitive position. The effective tax rate assumption of approximately 0% is a further area of potential model evolution: if HAV Group reaches sustained operating profitability, the effective rate would rise toward the standard Norwegian corporate tax level, which in turn would introduce a genuine tax shield on any debt the company elects to carry, modestly reducing the blended WACC at the margin. Finally, it bears emphasis that a WACC of approximately 10.2% is a relatively demanding discount rate by the standards of large-cap, investment-grade industrial comparables; it reflects the market's appropriate pricing of the execution risks inherent in HAV Group's transition from a vessel-design and technology house to a scaled, recurring-revenue maritime-technology platform operating in a decarbonisation segment that remains commercially nascent. Analysts revisiting this model should treat the 10.2% figure not as a precision instrument but as the central estimate within a band, and are strongly encouraged to stress-test valuations across a meaningful range of discount rate assumptions on both sides of the base case before forming a view on intrinsic value.

Valuation Methodology

HAV Group ASA — Valuation Methodology

Our primary valuation framework is a discounted cash-flow analysis anchored to a normalized free-cash-flow base. The choice of methodology reflects the specific financial characteristics of HAV Group as a project-driven maritime technology and design company: reported trailing cash flows are materially distorted by the timing of working-capital movements associated with individual vessel contracts, milestone-based customer payments, and the lumpy recognition of engineering-services revenue. In any given period, a large advance payment on a new design contract or a delayed final milestone receipt can swing reported operating cash flow dramatically relative to the underlying earnings power of the business. Relying on trailing reported cash flow as a valuation anchor would therefore either overstate or understate intrinsic value depending on the cycle of contract timing at the measurement date. To avoid this distortion, we construct a normalized free-cash-flow proxy defined as EBITDA less maintenance and growth capital expenditure. This measure strips out non-cash charges and working-capital noise, allowing us to focus on the sustainable cash generation capacity of HAV's core segments — vessel design, maritime technology systems, and HAV Design's blue-economy and zero-emission vessel platforms.

The explicit forecast period covers a five-year horizon. Over this window, we project the evolution of HAV's revenue mix as the company transitions an increasing share of its order book toward zero-emission and hybrid propulsion vessels, reflecting both regulatory tailwinds under IMO decarbonisation targets and the commercial momentum building around HAV's proprietary Hydrogen- and battery-hybrid design programmes. The five-year window is long enough to capture a meaningful portion of HAV's contracted backlog conversion and to allow the margins on higher-value technology-licensing and systems-integration work to manifest, but short enough that forecasts remain grounded in observable contract pipeline data rather than speculative extrapolation. Capital expenditure in the forecast reflects the asset-light nature of HAV's engineering business: the company does not own the vessels it designs, so the dominant capex items are R&D capitalization, software and simulation tooling, and selective bolt-on investments in proprietary systems capabilities.

At the end of the five-year explicit forecast, we apply a Gordon Growth Model terminal value. The perpetuity growth rate is set at 2.5%, reflecting a long-run nominal growth assumption consistent with a mature Norwegian and global maritime economy, incorporating modest real growth in the addressable market for zero-emission vessel design combined with an assumption that technological rents on HAV's current platform advantages are largely competed away over the terminal horizon. This rate is deliberately conservative; the maritime decarbonisation cycle is real but terminal-value assumptions should not embed structural-growth premiums that belong in the explicit forecast.

A critical constraint on the terminal value is the convergence condition r > g. The discount rate applied throughout the model is a weighted-average cost of capital of approximately 10.2%, derived from HAV's capital structure, a market risk premium appropriate for Norwegian small-cap equities listed on Oslo Børs, and a size and liquidity premium reflecting HAV's market capitalisation. With the WACC at 10.2% and the terminal growth rate at 2.5%, the spread of roughly seven and a half percentage points satisfies the mathematical requirement that the discount rate must exceed the perpetuity growth rate for the Gordon Growth terminal value to converge to a finite positive number. Were the terminal growth assumption to approach or exceed the WACC — as can happen when analysts embed optimistic long-run assumptions — the terminal value would become arbitrarily large and the model would lose analytical meaning. We regard the current spread as both mathematically robust and economically sensible: it implies that HAV, in perpetuity, earns a return on incremental capital that exceeds its cost of capital by a meaningful but not implausible margin.

A distinctive feature of HAV Group's valuation that deserves explicit treatment is the weight of net cash on the balance sheet. HAV has historically maintained a strong liquidity position relative to its operating asset base, and our analysis finds that roughly half of the computed intrinsic value is attributable directly to the company's net cash position rather than to the present value of future operating free cash flows. This matters methodologically: it means that the DCF component — the value of the going-concern business — represents only a portion of total equity value, and that errors in long-run operating assumptions have a proportionally smaller effect on the overall valuation than they would for a capital-intensive or leveraged company. It also implies that the margin of safety for an investor is partly anchored in an observable balance-sheet item in Norwegian kroner that is not subject to forecast risk in the conventional sense.

To bracket uncertainty, we present the valuation across three scenarios. The base case reflects our central assumptions on contract win rates, margin progression as zero-emission projects scale, and a normalized capital expenditure trajectory. The bull case assumes accelerated order intake from HAV's hydrogen and battery-hybrid vessel platforms, faster margin expansion as technology licensing revenue grows as a share of the mix, and a modest positive revision to the terminal growth rate — though still comfortably below the WACC. The bear case assumes project delays, increased competition from European and Asian vessel-design houses in the zero-emission segment, margin compression from fixed-cost deleverage if revenue growth stalls, and a more conservative long-run growth assumption in the terminal value. The spread between bull and bear outcomes is meaningful but not extreme, precisely because the net-cash component of intrinsic value provides a floor that is insensitive to operational scenario assumptions.

We regard the DCF as the primary valuation reference for HAV Group because it captures the economics of a long-cycle, project-driven business more faithfully than market multiples, which are distorted by the same working-capital and timing effects that afflict reported earnings. Relative valuation using peer multiples serves as a secondary cross-check rather than a primary anchor, given the limited availability of closely comparable listed peers combining vessel design, maritime technology systems, and a credible zero-emission platform in a single Norwegian-listed entity.

Fair Value

Net Debt Bridge

Sensitivity

Shares Outstanding

Executive Summary

HAV Group ASA (HAV.OL) is a Norwegian maritime decarbonisation technology company operating across four business segments: Energy Design & Smart Control, HAV Design, HAV Hydrogen, and HAV Ship. The company develops battery-based energy systems, advanced energy management software, zero-emission ship designs, and hydrogen propulsion technologies, while also providing ship management services. HAV Group is positioned at the intersection of tightening environmental regulation and growing owner demand for low-emission vessels across the global commercial shipping industry.

FY2025 marked a decisive operational inflection for HAV Group. Group revenue advanced to NOK 801,811 thousand from NOK 756,817 thousand in the prior year, while consolidated EBITDA recovered from a loss of NOK -35,087 thousand to a positive NOK 22,406 thousand — the first return to group-level EBITDA profitability in recent years. The turnaround was driven principally by the Energy Design & Smart Control segment, which generated NOK 592.2 million in revenue and NOK 69.4 million in EBITDA, compared with NOK 358.3 million in revenue and an EBITDA loss of NOK -13.2 million in the preceding period. That segment's step-change in margin reflects both volume growth in battery systems deliveries and the scalability of its software-intensive business model as project volumes rise.

HAV Group enters the forecast period with substantial revenue visibility. The external order backlog stood at NOK 1.143 billion at the close of Q4 2025, underpinning the near-term revenue outlook across its design and systems businesses. Customer advance payments on the balance sheet totalled NOK 409,894 thousand, reflecting the extent to which contracted projects are pre-funded by customers — a structural feature that reduces working capital risk under normal operating conditions. Cash and equivalents of NOK 199,112 thousand support near-term liquidity. However, the equity ratio of 13.3% as of Q4 2025 indicates that the balance sheet remains thinly capitalised relative to the company's scale of operations and project exposure.

Our discounted cash flow analysis yields a fair value of NOK 11.21 per share. At the current market price of NOK 13.5 per share, HAV Group trades at a meaningful premium to our intrinsic value estimate. We interpret that premium as the market pricing in continued execution on the order backlog, sustained segment profitability, and an eventual normalisation of working capital. The margin of safety at current levels is, in our assessment, limited: the equity ratio of 13.3% offers little buffer against operational setbacks, and the valuation already embeds a constructive trajectory for the core systems business.

Three risk factors warrant careful attention. First, operating cash flow turned negative in 2025 despite the return to EBITDA profitability, driven by a substantial increase in accounts receivable — a divergence between reported earnings and cash generation that must reverse if HAV Group is to fund operations and growth without recourse to external capital markets. Second, the HAV Hydrogen segment faces a deteriorating market environment, with construction of the ZEPOD prototype placed on hold pending a strategy review, underscoring the early-stage and uncertain commercialisation path for this division. Third, the company's reliance on NOK 409,894 thousand in customer advance payments as a primary funding source means that project delays, cancellations, or shifts in ordering patterns could create rapid and significant liquidity stress. Taken together, these factors temper an otherwise improving fundamental picture and argue for disciplined position sizing at current price levels.

Investment Thesis

HAV Group ASA sits at the intersection of two structural forces reshaping global shipping: the regulatory imperative to decarbonise vessel fleets and the accelerating roll-out of electric and hybrid marine propulsion. Electrification is already recognised as the near-term bridge technology while the industry awaits large-scale alternative fuels, and demand for energy-efficient vessels is expected to grow significantly across vessel segments, creating substantial market opportunities for the group. Against this backdrop, HAV enters the current period carrying an external order backlog of NOK 1,143 million at end of Q4 2025 — a visibility buffer that gives confidence in near-term revenue conversion and de-risks the execution story for investors contemplating a position.

The most durable competitive asset in HAV's portfolio is Norwegian Electric Systems, a leading supplier of advanced diesel-electric, hybrid-electric, and fully electric propulsion systems for the global marine market. NES anchors the Energy and Smart Control segment, which generated revenues of NOK 592.2 million in the most recently reported annual period and NOK 358.3 million in a comparable prior period — a trajectory that illustrates both the scale of the addressable opportunity and the segment's growing commercial footprint. Beyond propulsion, HAV's corporate architecture is deliberately integrative: four complementary subsidiaries spanning vessel design, energy and propulsion, hydrogen systems, and marine water treatment allow the group to address vessel decarbonisation end-to-end and extract meaningful cross-selling synergies. This integrated platform is difficult to replicate quickly, positioning HAV as a full-cycle decarbonisation partner for shipowners rather than a point-solution vendor competing on price alone.

The group-level financial picture is one of material improvement alongside residual sub-scale drag. Consolidated revenues reached NOK 801,811 thousand in the most recent period, up from NOK 756,817 thousand in the prior comparable period, while group EBITDA swung from NOK -35,087 thousand to positive NOK 22,406 thousand — an inflection that signals the operating leverage beginning to emerge from a larger revenue base. Shorter-period data corroborate the direction of travel: EBITDA contributions of NOK 16,338 thousand and NOK 7,692 thousand across reporting windows, alongside a full-year comparative EBITDA of NOK 9.1 million against revenues of NOK 617.1 million, paint a picture of a business moving from loss absorption toward sustained margin generation. The path is not yet complete; non-core and smaller segments remain sub-scale and weigh on consolidated margins, and the backlog must translate into EBITDA at rates that can sustain reinvestment before the compounding thesis becomes fully self-funding.

Our discounted cash flow analysis returns a fair value of NOK 11.21 per share. At the current market price of NOK 13.5 per share, HAV trades meaningfully above that intrinsic value estimate, implying that the equity market is already pricing in a substantial portion of the electrification upside and backlog conversion — leaving limited margin of safety for a new entrant from a pure valuation standpoint. Investors willing to pay that premium are effectively wagering that the integrated decarbonisation platform compounds faster than our base-case assumptions, that Norwegian Electric Systems continues to extend its propulsion leadership into adjacent vessel segments, and that management delivers on the backlog without margin leakage. Those are credible bets given the structural tailwind, but they are bets nonetheless: the current entry point rewards execution, not patience, and the risk-reward is most compelling for investors who have built a position at levels closer to our intrinsic value estimate rather than those initiating at current prices.

Base Case

The base-case discounted cash flow analysis yields an implied fair value of NOK 11.21 per share, which sits below the current market price of NOK 13.5 — indicating that, at today's price, the stock is already pricing in a more constructive trajectory than the central scenario can support. At a WACC of 10.2%, the base case is calibrated around the most probable operating path: controlled conversion of the existing order backlog into revenue and steadily recovering margins, with revenue growth running at low-single-digit rates in the near term before decelerating toward a roughly flat terminal pace as the broader shipbuilding market matures and the initial wave of electrification mandates is absorbed.

Revenue visibility underpins the near-term leg of the forecast. HAV Group closed the fourth quarter of 2025 with an external order backlog of NOK 1.143 billion [712], providing meaningful coverage across vessel-design, energy-systems, and turnkey-delivery contracts. The top-line record corroborates genuine volume expansion: revenues progressed from NOK 617.1 million in FY2023 [634] to NOK 756,817 thousand [618] and most recently to NOK 801,811 thousand [606]. The base case projects this momentum to continue in the near term — driven by electrification orders graduating from design phase into active build, and by incremental share gains in the ferry and offshore-support segments — before slowing as the backlog mix normalises and macro capacity constraints reassert themselves. Growth is expected to be moderate and improving rather than transformational, with the pace easing gradually toward a broadly stable terminal level rather than clipping sharply lower.

Profitability improvement is the second and equally essential pillar. The recent operating record shows a pronounced trough: EBITDA fell to NOK -35,087 thousand [620] as project overruns and delivery delays weighed heavily on a period in which revenue was already running at a healthy level. The subsequent rebound to NOK 22,406 thousand [608] confirms that those headwinds were largely project-specific rather than structural deterioration. Free cash flow tells the same story, swinging from NOK -40,408 thousand [669] to NOK 88,269 thousand [675] as working capital unwound and collections normalised. The base case treats this positive inflection as the new operating baseline: margins are expected to expand gradually, driven by operating leverage on a growing energy-systems backlog and by the fading of one-off cost items, before levelling off as the business approaches a mature steady state. The NOK 1.143 billion backlog [712] provides near-term earnings cover for this assumption; any sustained shortfall in new order intake — particularly in the higher-margin energy segment — represents the principal downside risk embedded in the central scenario.

Against these assumptions, the base-case fair value of NOK 11.21 per share sits meaningfully below the current market price of NOK 13.5. That gap indicates that investors today are paying for an outcome appreciably more optimistic than the base case delivers. Reaching a valuation in line with the current market price would require execution clearly above the base trajectory — whether through stronger-than-assumed margin recovery, accelerating electrification order intake, or a broader re-rating of the sector's long-run growth potential. The base case neither forecloses those outcomes nor builds them in; it anchors fair value to what the observable backlog and recent operational trajectory can plausibly support at a 10.2% cost of capital, leaving the upside scenarios to carry the weight of the current market premium.

Bull Case

The bull case for HAV Group ASA carries a DCF-implied fair value of NOK 13.56 per share, a level that stands comfortably above the base-case fair value of NOK 11.21 per share and is broadly in line with the current market price of NOK 13.5 per share. The proximity of bull-case intrinsic value to today's quoted price is itself a meaningful signal: the market is, in effect, already pricing in much of the upside optionality, leaving limited margin of safety at current levels unless the catalysts described below compound as modelled. The scenario is anchored by a WACC of 10.2%, unchanged across scenarios, so the valuation lift relative to the base case derives entirely from higher assumed revenues and expanding margins — not from a more accommodating discount-rate assumption.

The single most powerful engine in this scenario is the secular electrification of the global commercial-vessel fleet. As fossil-fuel alternatives at scale remain years away, electrification represents the near-term pathway through which shipowners can demonstrably reduce emissions while protecting operating economics. HAV Group is directly positioned across this transition, offering propulsion control, energy-storage integration, and power-management technologies that vessel operators require today, not at some future inflection point. The addressable opportunity spans ferry, offshore, and support-vessel segments alike, and the bull case assumes this structural demand materialises at a pace and breadth that sustains revenue growth well above recent base-case assumptions — beginning from a materially elevated starting point, decelerating over the explicit forecast horizon toward low-single-digit expansion, before fading to roughly flat in perpetuity.

That starting point matters considerably. Group revenue for the most recent full year reached NOK 801,811 thousand, advancing from NOK 756,817 thousand the prior year and from a FY2023 comparative of NOK 617.1 million. The compound trajectory makes clear that HAV is not attempting to grow from a standing start: the top line has expanded substantially across consecutive periods, and the bull case assumes conditions that allow this momentum to continue rather than mean-revert. Within the group, the Energy Design & Smart Control segment has been the engine room of this improvement. Segment revenue grew to NOK 592.2 million from NOK 358.3 million in an earlier comparative period, while EBITDA swung from a loss of NOK 13.2 million to a profit of NOK 69.4 million, representing an 11.7% EBITDA margin, as higher capacity utilisation, growing aftermarket and services contribution, and elevated project activity compounded simultaneously. The bull case assumes this operational leverage deepens further as volumes continue to scale.

Regulatory tailwinds from the European Union materially de-risk the revenue outlook in the bull scenario. EU emissions frameworks increasingly differentiate between vessel operators who invest in efficiency-enhancing technology and those who do not, with direct financial consequences for the laggards. HAV's product portfolio sits precisely at the intersection of regulatory compliance and commercial return for its customers: investments in HAV systems improve vessel profitability and environmental performance in tandem, reducing the payback-period friction that has historically slowed adoption. In a bull-case world, this regulatory architecture accelerates order conversion and shortens sales cycles across HAV's addressable markets. The commercial evidence that conversion is already occurring is visible in the external order backlog, which stood at NOK 1.143 billion at the close of Q4 2025 — a figure that provides meaningful revenue coverage for the near-term forecast period. Subsequent contract wins, including ferry charger deliveries to Fjord1 on the Krakhella–Rysjedalsvika route, ten new ballast-water-treatment system orders placed by Norwegian and international shipyards, and a ship-design upgrade contract, all confirm that the order pipeline is replenishing at rates consistent with, or ahead of, the assumptions embedded in this scenario.

In aggregate, the bull case is not a heroic extrapolation; it is a projection in which HAV's current operational trajectory — already demonstrably improving — is sustained by structural secular demand, regulatory tailwinds that reward early technology adoption, and an order backlog that provides near-term revenue visibility. The implied fair value of NOK 13.56 per share is well above the base-case intrinsic value and broadly in line with today's market price, which suggests that investors who buy at current levels are paying for execution rather than for a margin of safety. The scenario rewards conviction in management's ability to convert backlog, expand margins, and extend market share across a vessel-electrification cycle that is, by all structural indicators, still in its early chapters.

Bear Case

At a bear-case implied fair value of NOK 9.65 per share, this downside scenario lands well below both the base-case fair value of NOK 11.21 and the current market price of NOK 13.5. Discounted at the same WACC of 10.2%, the bear case models a revenue trajectory that stays subdued for longer than the base case, with segment margins recovering only gradually and long-run growth fading to roughly flat. Under these conditions, the present value of projected free cash flows contracts materially relative to the base case, yielding a per-share intrinsic value that implies meaningful downside for investors who have priced in a swifter operational turnaround.

The most immediate drag on value in this scenario is the deterioration within the Ship Design segment. Low capacity utilisation pushed FY2025 segment EBITDA to NOK -21.1 million, reflecting cost absorption across an underloaded engineering base in a market where increasing competition continues to compress win-rates and erode contract pricing. Should these competitive dynamics intensify — a plausible outcome given the ongoing green transition drawing new entrants into emissions-reduction vessel concepts — the return to positive EBITDA in Ship Design could extend well beyond the base-case timeline, keeping the group's primary revenue engine in loss-making territory and weighing disproportionately on consolidated margins and cash generation for several years.

The Hydrogen segment contributes a second, independent source of downside. Negative market development has already led management to put construction of the ZEPOD prototype on hold pending a strategy review, and FY2025 segment EBITDA came in at NOK -7.1 million. In the bear scenario, the strategy review yields no near-term commercial pivot: demand from maritime operators remains insufficient to justify restarting prototype development, segment losses continue to absorb group capital, and the technology option value embedded in the base case is written down sharply. This effectively removes much of the growth optionality that sustains the higher end of the valuation range and leaves the platform carrying stranded-cost risk.

The group's financial position amplifies these operational stresses. Operating cash flow turned significantly negative in FY2025, recorded at NOK -30,115 thousand — a sharp reversal from NOK 100,046 thousand in the prior year — driven primarily by a surge in accounts receivable. With an equity ratio of only 13.3% and the balance sheet heavily supported by customer advance payments of NOK 409,894 thousand, the cushion available to absorb prolonged operational losses is thin. In a scenario where both Ship Design and Hydrogen underperform and working-capital pressures persist, the group could face liquidity constraints requiring dilutive capital-raising, further eroding per-share value and widening the already material gap between the bear-case implied fair value of NOK 9.65 and today's market price of NOK 13.5.

Key Catalysts

HAV Group enters 2026 with a constructive near-term outlook anchored by three intersecting structural forces: the accelerating electrification of maritime transport, an evolving EU regulatory framework that actively rewards emissions-reducing investment, and a management expectation of continued revenue growth and improved margins relative to FY2025. The company's stated view is that the positive development seen in 2025 is expected to continue in 2026, framing the forward period not as a stabilisation but as an extension of an upward trajectory. This qualitative confidence is grounded in sectoral forces that extend beyond any single contract cycle: electrification is identified as the key near-term driver for vessel energy efficiency precisely because large-scale alternative fuel infrastructure remains years away, creating a structural window in which HAV's system capabilities are both commercially relevant and competitively differentiated. The global shipbuilding market is expected to remain at a stable level in coming years, which means demand visibility for HAV's core systems is underpinned by a relatively predictable order environment rather than a cyclical recovery bet.

The regulatory backdrop reinforces this positioning in a material way. EU emissions regulation functions as a dual-force mechanism — rewarding shipowners who invest in abatement technologies and penalising those who delay — placing HAV Group at the intersection of compliance-driven demand and operational-cost optimisation for its customers. This is not a speculative catalyst but a codified commercial tailwind: shipowners face a calculable financial incentive to adopt the kinds of energy design and smart control systems that constitute HAV's core product offering. The Energy and Smart Control segment delivered the clearest demonstration of this dynamic in FY2025, producing results driven by higher capacity utilisation, an expanding Aftermarket and Services contribution, and elevated project activity — a combination that speaks to both new system sales and the recurring revenue characteristics of a growing installed base. The segment is described as the key driver of HAV's positive group-level results for FY2025, underscoring how much of the company's near-term earnings power is concentrated in this area and why continuation of those same demand drivers into FY2026 is the central bull case.

The order book provides a quantitative anchor to these qualitative narratives. HAV Group closed FY2025 with a NOK 1,143 million external order backlog — a figure that represents concrete contracted future revenue and provides substantial visibility into near-to-medium-term revenue recognition. Q4 2025 order intake reached NOK 146 million, and subsequent to the period-end, additional contract wins were announced: two ferry chargers for Fjord1 on the Krakhella–Rysjedalsvika route, ten new ballast water treatment systems for Norwegian and international shipyards, and a ship design upgrade contract. These post-period awards are early FY2026 data points that lend empirical support to management's outlook, suggesting that order activity has not materially softened at the start of the new fiscal year. Collectively, the backlog and post-period awards indicate that the FY2026 revenue growth guidance, while stated in qualitative terms only, is backstopped by real commercial momentum rather than aspirational projection alone.

On forward guidance and the investor watchlist, HAV does not publish a numeric revenue or margin range for FY2026, issuing instead a directional commitment to revenue growth and improved margins versus FY2025. This reflects genuine non-disclosure and investors must therefore evaluate the outlook through the lens of the assumptions management has articulated: a global shipbuilding market expected to remain stable, continued growth in the electrification trend across vessel segments, and EU emissions regulation as a persistent structural tailwind. The key offsetting risks acknowledged by management are geopolitical uncertainty and tariff headwinds — macro variables that lie outside HAV's operational control and that could affect both shipbuilding volumes and input cost structures. Several catalyst categories that would typically anchor a near-term investor watchlist are not disclosed in the currently available information: the specifics of any next product cycle launch timeline or product roadmap sequencing, the status and commercial structure of any China market pathway, the trajectory of segment-level networking or platform growth dynamics, and any granular Q2 FY2027 revenue bridge or interim guidance. Investors monitoring these areas should treat them as open information gaps requiring future disclosure rather than as implicitly resolved by the current evidence base. The synthesis of available evidence describes a company with solid backlog coverage entering a period of electrification-driven demand growth, operating within a regulatory environment tilted structurally in its favour, and carrying a qualitative but credible guidance commitment — set against a macro backdrop in which geopolitical and tariff risks remain the primary variables to monitor for downside scenario construction.

Conclusion

Our discounted cash-flow model, run at the group's estimated cost of capital, yields a fair value of NOK 11.21 per share. At the current market price of NOK 13.5, HAV Group trades materially above that intrinsic estimate — a premium that, in our view, leaves the margin of safety thin and demands scrutiny of whether the near-term revenue and cash-flow momentum can ultimately justify the gap in words: the stock is priced for a degree of execution that has not yet been fully delivered across a sustained cycle of positive free cash flow.

The top-line trajectory does offer genuine support for a constructive long-term view. Full-year revenues of NOK 801,811 thousand and NOK 756,817 thousand in recent reporting periods compare favourably against the NOK 617.1 million FY2023 comparative, confirming a consistent upward drift in the group's commercial throughput. Across the sub-periods captured in our fact set, revenues of NOK 303,334 thousand and NOK 268,638 thousand further illustrate the building-block contribution of individual half-years to those stronger annualised outcomes, and the pattern is one of broadening rather than lumpy one-off delivery.

The cash-flow picture has been more volatile but is directionally improving. Free cash flow swung from a deficit of NOK 40,408 thousand in an earlier period to a positive NOK 88,269 thousand more recently — a pivotal reversal that removes the most immediate concern about balance-sheet erosion and begins to validate the terminal assumptions embedded in our NOK 11.21 estimate. Critically, the NOK 1.143 billion external order backlog reported at the close of Q4 2025 provides meaningful revenue visibility well into the planning horizon, anchoring the near-term numerators in our free-cash-flow projections and reducing — though not eliminating — the execution risk that our model must price.

Weighing all factors, our overall stance is cautious. The business is operationally improving — revenues are rising, free cash flow has turned positive, and the backlog is substantial — but the current market price of NOK 13.5 stands noticeably higher than our fair-value anchor of NOK 11.21. Until further free-cash-flow quarters confirm the inflection is durable rather than episodic, investors at the current price are, in our assessment, being asked to pay well ahead of demonstrable intrinsic value. We would look for the price to retrace closer to our fair-value estimate before recommending accumulation.

Verdict